The next 4 critical weeks

While the Yankees keep performing this badly, Boston will continually extend their lead in the AL East. Hopefully the Yankees will take this series as a sign that they're not good enough to sit back. They have to play hard every day.

The team needs to reach 14 games over .500 at the all-star break to keep pace for a playoff spot. With 22 games left, they'll need to go 14-8.

The upcoming road trip will feature three games in Florida, three in Atlanta, and three with the Mets. Expect the Yankees to finish the trip at 4-5, at that point having to go 10-3 over the next 13 to keep pace.

Next the Yankees come home for three against Seattle and four with Toronto. They'll probably take four out of those seven games. But let's be optimistic and say they go 5-2. Now they would need to go 5-1 in the last two series to keep pace for the wild card.

Can the Yankees go to Minnesota and Anaheim and pick up 5 of 6 against those teams? Not likely. I'd take 3-3, which would put the Yankees at 12-10 between now and the break.

That's an overall record of 49-39, exactly the record I predicted a month ago (I actually predicted 49-40, but a game against Tampa Bay was postponed). Let's hope I'm wrong, because a 49-39 record would put the Yankees in poor position for a playoff run, given the difficulty of their schedule and of their division.

One more thing: If the Yankees continue to play the way they just did against Washington, all of this is moot and I'm going to stop blogging until Girardi is fired or management starts putting its collective foot down. But for now I'll be a little more patient.