Projections

With this win against the Mets, the Yankees are now 43-32, 11 games over .500 (and 3 behind the Red Sox). With 13 games left before the all-star break, the team needs to go 8-5 or 9-4 in those games to put themselves into optimal position for a playoff run. Should they lose more than 5 of those games, they'll be in OK but not great shape, considering the difficulty of their schedule in August and September. (I consider 95 wins a great target. Win 95 and you're virtually a shoo-in for the playoffs. Win fewer and you're in a tough race and your destiny is determined by the opposition. Winning 95 means finishing the season 28 games over .500, at 95-67. And that means reaching at least 14 games over .500 by the break. More like 15 this year because the break is scheduled after 88 games.)

At home the Yankees will play 3 with Seattle and 4 with Toronto. I expect the Yankees to win 4 of these games. Afterwards they'll play three in the Metrodome and three in Anaheim, where they have a history of struggling. Three out of six seems reasonable in that last roadtrip before the break.

That amounts to a 7-6 record between now and the break, which adds up to a 50-38 record overall. 12 games over .500 after 88 games is ok, but they'll need to play better in the second half against slightly better opposition that is more familiar with them.

The Bombers might not need 95 wins this season to make the playoffs. They may only need 92. But 95 makes the playoffs a near-certainty. The Red Sox will be there, and both Toronto and Tampa Bay seem intent on making a run at 90+ wins. It will be a tight race.

And that means it's crucial for the Yanks to do a little better than 50 wins before the break. I've been hoping for 52, and I think they'll get 50. But, as you can see from the last two weeks, I underestimated the Yankees. Let's hope they surprise me again.

Projected record for current homestand: 4-3
Target record for current homestand: 5-2
Result 0-0
Games remaining: 7