With their first sweep of the season, the Yankees have won 6 straight games and are now 4 games over .500, at 21-17.
At this point of the year, one shouldn't look at the standings too much. Hot teams in May aren't always hot in August. And the pennant race doesn't begin until at least the All-Star break. But even now, records matter. That said, I'd like to see the Yankees reach 15 games over .500 before the All-Star break. That would put the team on a pace for 95 wins, which should be enough for a playoff spot.
However, the Yankees' schedule looks tough up until then. They have several series against Texas, the Mets, the Phillies, the Rays, the Blue Jays, the Angels, and the Red Sox, all of whom are above-average teams this year.
It's more realistic that the Yankees will finish the first half at about 9 games over .500, compiling a 28-23 record between now and then, for a 49-40 first half. If they do better, then great. If not, then it's a disappointment, and it would put them in poor position for a stretch run.
After the break, the Yankees will have 73 games left to play. If they enter the All-Star break at 49-40, they'd need to go 46-27 after the break to reach 95 wins, which I think they will need in the ultra-competitive AL East.
But there's a problem. Excluding a brief west-coast trip that has a stop in LA and a quick 3 game set against the Royals, the Yankees will finish August, play all of September, and complete the season with 3 games in October against AL East opponents who always play the Yankees tough.
Looking at it this way, I think the Yankees will have to buck the odds BEFORE the All Star break, and win at least 30 between now and then (going 30-21). A-Rod's presence in the lineup should help, and with those 30 wins the Yankees would be 51-38 entering the break (13 games over .500). That's still not on pace for 95 wins, but it's close.
At this point of the year, one shouldn't look at the standings too much. Hot teams in May aren't always hot in August. And the pennant race doesn't begin until at least the All-Star break. But even now, records matter. That said, I'd like to see the Yankees reach 15 games over .500 before the All-Star break. That would put the team on a pace for 95 wins, which should be enough for a playoff spot.
However, the Yankees' schedule looks tough up until then. They have several series against Texas, the Mets, the Phillies, the Rays, the Blue Jays, the Angels, and the Red Sox, all of whom are above-average teams this year.
It's more realistic that the Yankees will finish the first half at about 9 games over .500, compiling a 28-23 record between now and then, for a 49-40 first half. If they do better, then great. If not, then it's a disappointment, and it would put them in poor position for a stretch run.
After the break, the Yankees will have 73 games left to play. If they enter the All-Star break at 49-40, they'd need to go 46-27 after the break to reach 95 wins, which I think they will need in the ultra-competitive AL East.
But there's a problem. Excluding a brief west-coast trip that has a stop in LA and a quick 3 game set against the Royals, the Yankees will finish August, play all of September, and complete the season with 3 games in October against AL East opponents who always play the Yankees tough.
Looking at it this way, I think the Yankees will have to buck the odds BEFORE the All Star break, and win at least 30 between now and then (going 30-21). A-Rod's presence in the lineup should help, and with those 30 wins the Yankees would be 51-38 entering the break (13 games over .500). That's still not on pace for 95 wins, but it's close.
The Yankees will also need an excellent performance in August, because September will be very tough. Problem is, in August they'll have 15 games against either the Red Sox or Blue Jays, a three game set with Texas, and a west coast trip.
It's going to be rough, that's for sure.
It's going to be rough, that's for sure.
I'll be giving season outlooks like this every two or three weeks until the break, after which time I'll give an outlook once after every series or two. For now, the Yankees need to win both of these series against Baltimore and Philadelphia. That means going 4-2 over the next 6 games. Yes, it's still May, but these games are more important than they look.
Go Yanks.
No comments:
Post a Comment