Monday, August 31, 2009

21-7 against .525 (Yanks 5, Orioles 1)




Pros often say that many of the best teams have, in general, two goals during the season. The first is to win a large portion of their games against weak opponents. The second is to play approximately .500 baseball against the best teams. Put them together, and you should have enough wins to find a way into the playoffs. From there you just take your chances against similarly skilled opposition.

I thought about that when I compiled these numbers on the Yankees' amazing August run. By the numbers, it was 21 wins and 7 losses over 28 games. The Yankees outscored their opponents by a combined 175-123 during the month. And here's the most telling stat of all. When you look at a 21-7 record, most people would say, "well their opposition wasn't much good." So I looked at the records for the opposition, and I found the average record and winning percentage across all 28 games. Teams the Yankees played more than once got more weight in the comparison. But most importantly, I calculated the combined opponents' winning percentage minus any games against the Yankees. In other words, I calculated the Yankees' opponents' winning percentage as though the Yankees did not play any of them this month.

The Yankees' opponents' average winning percentage was .525 in August. Only 4 teams in the American League have a winning percentage of more than .525, and one of them is the Yankees themselves (remember, just 4 teams make the playoffs from each league). What this means is that, for August, it was as though the Yankees faced a playoff team (a .525 team) in all 28 games they played. And in those games the Yankees decimated the opposition, outscoring them 175-123, and winning 21 of the 28 games.

The goal, apparently, isn't to play .500 baseball against the best teams. The goal seems to be...to destroy them.

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