Mauer the mirage

Mauer is an excellent hitter. One could even say he is one of the league’s elite. But if you’re like me and you had a nagging feeling that Mauer’s numbers are too good to be true, you’re right. They’re inflated. The imbalanced schedule allows him to repeatedly tee off against weak pitching staffs in his own division. A closer look reveals how powerfully hitting numbers can be inflated in the AL Central and suppressed in the AL East.

Mauer has had the most at bats against KC, against whom he has punished the ball for 21 hits in 44 at bats.

#2 on Mauer’s hit list is Cleveland, the staff with the worst ERA in baseball. Mauer has feasted repeatedly on their weak pitching, going a stratospheric 19 for 35.

But how about Roy Holliday? The excellent staffs in Tampa Bay and Boston?

Jeter has faced Halliday in two games and has just one hit to show for it. Mauer has not faced Halliday this year.

Mauer has just 8 at-bats this season against Tampa Bay’s above-average staff. Jeter has 46 and has managed a respectable 14 hits.

But here’s the clincher. Against the elite Boston staff Mauer has just two hits in 11 at bats. He will not face Boston again this year. But Jeter has come to the plate against the Sox an astonishing 71 times and rapped 19 hits for a .268 average.

Conclusion: Mauer’s numbers are spectacularly inflated because he plays in the central division. Injuries in April allowed him to almost completely avoid having to face the Red Sox and Tampa bay, and all year long he was never once tested by Halliday. The truth is, Derek Jeter is the MVP because he has faced and overcome much tougher pitching, and has lead his team to the best record in baseball, in baseball’s toughest division. It’s as simple as that.