4th starter fretting

There's been some talk lately about who the Yankees will send out to the mound as their 4th starter in the playoffs. Yes, it's sort of important. But I think that if fans are really worried about it and complaining incessantly about it, then it should be noted that the 4th starter hardly ever makes or break a series. Here's the (almost) identical post I put up on the NYTimes blog, comment #35.

I checked. In all the playoff losses the Yankees have been involved in since 1995, the only time a 4th starter mattered at all was in 1995 and 2006.

Scott Kamieniecki was jacked up in game 4, 1995 and that cost the Yankees the series against the Mariners. But since then only in 2006 has a 4th starter even been a factor in a Yankee playoff loss. In the other losing years other much bigger factors took precedence.

In 1996 Kenny Rogers started 3 game fours and got abused by everyone, giving up a combined 11 earned runs in 7 innings. Result: World Championship

Gooden pitched well in game 4, 1997 and the Yankees still lost that series because of Jared Wright and Sandy Alomar.

From 1998-2000 the Yankees had Cone-Pettitte-Wells/Clemens-El Duque so that was that.

But in every series the Yankees have lost since then, not once can the series loss be blamed on the poor performance of a 4th starter.

The Yankees ran into buzz-saws in 2001 and 2002. Aging pitchers (Wells, Clemens, Brown, Johnson) broke down from 2003-2005. In game 4, 2006 Jared Wright was lit up like a cheap christmas tree but the Yankee offense was stagnant that day anyway. And forget the midges. The Yankees lost in 2007 because Chien Ming Wang repeatedly imploded.

The evidence is clear: The game 4 starter has not been a factor in any of the Yankee losses since 1996, and only in 2006 did that 4th starter have anything to do with it. The game 4 starter matters less than people think.

But lineup strength, top 3 starters and the bullpen DO matter. And this year the Yankees have them all in spades.