The Matchups in Philly

The 1-1 split in the Bronx means these two teams will play a 3 game series in Philadelphia.

If either team sweeps, they will win the World Series. But I think a sweep by either team is unlikely and a bit unrealistic. More likely, over the 3 games one team will win 2.

So both teams have the same realistic goal: take 2 of 3 in Philly so that you have 2 shots in the Bronx to win the whole thing. Lose 2 of three, and you're in deep trouble.

So here are the pitching matchups for the crucial 3-game mini-series in Philly:

Game 3: Pettitte vs. Hamels
Game 4: Sebathia vs. Blanton
Game 5: Burnett vs. Lee

Obviously, the Sebathia vs. Blanton matchup seems to be the most winnable. Chalk that one up for the Yankees unless Sebathia gets tired and/or the Yankees' unfamiliarity with Blanton makes it difficult for them to guess right. In that case, anything can happen.

And in game 5, the Yankees would need Burnett to be just as good, and maybe better than he was in game 2. That's probably not realistic, though Burnett has surprised people before. Lee, on the other hand, has the Yankees wrapped around his finger. I think the Yankees will be better against him (it would be hard for the Yankees to perform worse against Lee, so that's not exactly a bold prediction) but they may need to be much better against him, especially if Burnett is not at his best. The smart money, as much as I hate to say it, is probably on the Phillies in this one.

That brings us to the crucial game 3, probably the pivotal game. If things work out in practice like they seem to foreshadow on paper (CC winning game 4 and Lee winning game 5), then game 3 is the key. Andy Pettitte vs. Cole Hamels. Pettitte knows how to pitch in the postseason, and he's well rested. Hamels was the MVP of last years world series, but I think his youth and opponents' unfamiliarity with him contributed to his success (remember Jared Wright in 1997?). Hamels has had an up and down year and a mixed postseason in 2009, which indicates that opponents have been putting the readily available information about his style, pitch selection, and his other strategies to good use. If he's the real deal, he'll put in a quality start against the Yankees. If not, the Yankees will exploit his weaknesses, take him down, ride CC in game 4 and most likely return to the Bronx for game 6 with a 3-2 lead. Let's see what Mr. Hamels is made of.

Edit Nov. 2 2009: Here's Hamels' performance.